2016 bellwether counties 2016 bellwether counties

"This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. She says that previously, "when there was a presidential election, people are watching, paying attention, and as soon as the president is elected, they forget [about politics] until it's election time again". The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. So, where are the bellwether counties? (Needless to say that if the tables were reversed, we would hear no end of the significance of bellwether counties in the media.). 2016 Election (1135) "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. Seriously. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. Outstanding. That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. Nobody forgot about politics.". They simply vote on merit. Enter Donald Trump. So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. . Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. That report was issued on Nov. 12. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. Demographics (84) If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Want to dive deeper? Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. It very closely mirrors the rest of the state demographically (with a slightly higher Asian population), but it is far more educated. This county voted with the popular vote each time. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. Found an error on our site? Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. Outstanding. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? ), voted Democrat again in 2020? University of Denver, 2. Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). i.e. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. But both are worth watching. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. Some say it's not only the polarisation induced by the outgoing president that's to blame for traditional bellwether counties' failure to correctly predict the election. Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". Their concerns are real. Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. or even dive into the markdown files yourself to submit improvements. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. It almost became religious.". It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). 108,000 people. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. Have you looked at the results of these counties? What does Terre Haute know about America 2016? The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. All Rights Reserved. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. 6. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. The divisions were everywhere. Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. Team up with others in your region, and help out by Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. Until this year. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? If the Republican percentage in 2020 is less than in 2016, it would clearly indicate a change in sentiment away from the Republican party, towards the Democrat party. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? Their emotions and decision making process are real. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. (Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. (The highest value being again 66.1%). So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. Trump gave them hope. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). Arapahoe County. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted.